Towards a New Quebec Government

Today, Quebecers will choose their next government. Will this government be in power for the next four years or not? According to the poll aggregator Québec 125, there is a 50 per cent chance that the next government will be a minority government and formed by the Coalition Avenir Québec. This means that the Liberal Party of Quebec could also be re-elected this evening.

However, as the electoral battle is tight in several ridings across Quebec, Hill+Knowlton Strategies believes that the three electoral scenarios presented below are possible.

Scenario No. 1 – CAQ minority government

  • Probable lifespan of between 18 and 24 months
  • Short-term government vision
  • Governance with the opposition parties
  • Possibility of an alliance with one or several other parties
  • Slow first months, with many new elected officials, including ministers and political staff who will need to be trained
  • Difficulty in advancing files for businesses and organizations
  • Presentation of a budget
  • Slower formation of ministerial cabinets
  • Changes in senior elected officials

Scenario No. 2 – Liberal minority government

  • Probable lifespan of between 18 and 24 months
  • Short-term government vision
  • Governance with the opposition parties
  • Possibility of an alliance with one or several other parties
  • A certain continuity in government vision
  • A certain stability for staff in ministerial cabinets and senior officials
  • Difficulty in advancing files for businesses and organizations

Scenario No. 3 – CAQ majority government

  • Government vision over four years
  • Slow first months, with many new elected officials, including ministers and political staff who will need to be trained
  • Changes in senior elected officials
  • Presentation of a budget
  • During the first 100 days, presentation of measures to facilitate access to frontline health care and reopening of the law on the legalization of cannabis with the goal of making it more restrictive
  • Greater ease in advancing files for businesses and organizations